What a difference a year makes. This time last year (7/7/05) my children were in London and my wife and I were frantic over our safety. As it turned out, they were very close to the last bombing, but emerged from the experience unscathed, physically and emotionally.
This summer, as our people and government approach a biennial congressional election, the environment seems a bit mixed. At least it is different. Lately, the tenor in this town (Washington, DC) has changed. It appears to have mellowed in that the high-pitched, shrill rhetoric has gone into hibernation – for the moment. Yet, we know better.
This is the calm before the storm. Both parties are sizing up the battlefield and determining which tack to take during the impending struggle.
You may recall in an earlier article that I predicted the demise of the Republican House. This was based more on the national mood about the War in Iraq than it was on race-by-race analyses. In the end, of course, that’s how the issue will be settled. District-by-district. Nevertheless, I’ll stand by my prediction, which should result in the following significant legislative action this summer: None!
A quick glance at the Senate’s schedule shows it’s out of session one month (August) of the next two. The House isn’t much better. In fact, it’s the same. And then incumbents must focus on reelection, so they’ll be spending considerable time in their districts, even more so than usual, assuming my “national mood” theory is correct and that no incumbent wishes to take her or his race lightly. Both houses are looking at an October 6th adjournment date.
Immigration has gone on sabbatical, and intelligence concerns (NSA phone surveillance/wiretaps, tracking financial transactions, etc.) have blended into the woodwork. In April, it didn’t seem possible that an immigration showdown would not occur, and not be resolved, before the election.
Well, the showdown came: the Senate favored a more comprehensive guest worker proposal, while the House wanted first priority given to enforcing existing immigration laws, which seem to serve little more purpose nowadays than occupying lines in law books. And the showdown went. House and Senate conferees are now left to sort this out, but I don’t expect any more action before November. It appears as though all principals are going to go the ballot boxes clinging to their current positions and strategies. At best, this will be addressed – and buried one way or the other – relatively quickly after this election, so that by the 2008 elections, this matter will be relatively old news, and certainly won’t be as passionate an issue as it was a mere couple months ago.
Where does that leave government agencies charged with conducting their operations? What is the importance to the Executive Branch at the national level between now and the Fall election? It means staying the course, status quo, etc., which is more often than not the standard fare at large bureaucracies anyway. One matter, however, will soon be very hot. Budgets. The new fiscal year begins October 1st, shortly before the Congress’ targeted adjournment date of October 6th.
It will be very interesting to see how this all plays out. The last time Congress passed a timely federal budget the Chicago Cubs won the World Series. Well, it’s not been that bad, but it’s been quite bad. Congress can’t agree on whether the stripes on our flag are red and white or white and red. And with the spending in Iraq, disaster relief (Katrina and others), and new budget supplemental requests for tens (maybe hundreds) of millions of dollars due to flooding damage to government agencies in Washington, DC, last month, I wonder how this will unfold. The last thing members would want is to stay in session in Washington instead of campaigning in their home districts.
There you have it, from the keyboard of a delusional commentator: me. This summer will be relatively quiet, but activity will pick up considerably come Labor Day.
Enjoy the summer. It may be the last bit of peace and tranquility you’ll experience for some time.
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Fred W. Apelquist, III, M.Ed.
Approximately 680 words.
© July 7, 2006