Knowing my penchant for the trivial and inane, my wife, not so innocently, asked if I thought there was some correlation between Stock Market swings and Tiger Woods’ golfing fortunes and misfortunes. Until he won the Bay Hill Classic in Orlando and had his sights set on last week’s Players Championship in Jacksonville, the Market has been tanking.
I thought. Now there’s a totally meaningless and silly endeavor to pursue and ruminate about.
I got to work right away!
During Tiger’s hard times, i.e., playing golf like a mere mortal and not the god we believe him to be, the U.S. was losing more wealth than a gaggle of 20-handicappers in $50 Nassaus.
Could there be a connection between Tiger’s golf prowess and the health of the NYSE and NASDAQ? A quick look at the financial pages of the newspapers screamed: “Yes!” Our economy was spiraling madly into seeming nothingness as Tiger failed to right his sinking swing and march to expected victory.
Forget about the Federal Reserve. Alan Greenspan’s not the guy with the power. It’s Tiger. You da man!
But lest one gets too cocky, this Stock Market-Tiger Woods phenomenon is not as simple as it may seem. Isn’t that the way it always is with the Market, its strange psychology, and all those other market ‘forces?’ This is tough stuff to discern, but rest assured that I have the answer.
Even though Tiger was winning like a house on fire last year, the Market started its precipitous slide. Why? Because people knew that Tiger couldn’t maintain that high level of performance.
So, you ask, why did it continue to slide early this year as Tiger stumbled? Because people knew that Tiger couldn’t remain at such a low level of performance.
So, why, now, after Tiger’s back on top, determined to make his dominant presence felt, do we see stocks sink? That’s simple. Folks don’t know whether Tiger can maintain a high or low level of performance.
After all, this is the Stock Market we’re talking about. It doesn’t have to make sense. In fact, the less sense it makes, the more likely people will accept it.
I shared an observation with a bunch of so-called Stock Market experts on a recent Larry King Live show. I thought that only the hugest of huge investors influenced how the Market turns. I knew of no modest investors who moved 401K or IRA money out of the stock market into alternative mechanisms like money market accounts or bonds.
One expert answered that these folks did, in turn, have an impact on the Market. Imagine my disgust. My call was a set-up. A test. This so-called expert completely missed the Tiger Factor of Financial Phenomenons. You’d think something that obvious wouldn’t get by a person chosen to appear on such an august national cable broadcast.
But there you have it. Let we Palm Coasters ** be the first, and perhaps only, folks to understand how to read the Tiger Woods and Stock Market tea leaves. We’ll be laughing all the way to the bank.
You just have to know how play the game. Because you, my gentle readers, are so near and dear, I’ll let you in on the secret.
Whenever Tiger is under par after the first nine, buy. If he’s only par on any of the first six holes on the back nine, or hits an out-of-bounds shot on an odd-numbered hole, except for 5, 11 or 17, sell right away. Most people miss that nuance, yet it’s very critical.
If he wears any color other than Red on Sunday, sell. If he wears Red, and smiles a lot, sell, because he’s obviously given up and the national psyche will suffer, which, in turn, hurts the Market.
If he wins more than half of his next eight tournaments, sell. Remember, people won’t believe he can keep playing that well.
If he loses more than half of his next eight tournaments, sell. Folks won’t believe he can keep playing that poorly.
If he wins exactly half of his next eight appearances, buy, buy, buy. At that point, the country and the Market will have reached a state of fiscal equilibrium because Tiger’s deeds and greatness will be perfectly balanced, not leaning too far to one extreme (excessive winning) or the other (hapless losing).
America is a very strong country, but when it comes to golf, money, and Tiger Woods, it’s amazing how complicated and fragile the relationship can be.
Good luck and good investing.
** This article was written when I resided in Palm Coast, Florida, and appeared in the town's local newspaper. Thus, this reference phrase.
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Fred W. Apelquist, III, M.Ed.
Approximately 760 words.
(c) 2001