Forget about an October surprise. October came early this presidential election. A “September” surprise caught everyone unawares and because of it Barack Obama is likely to become the 44th President of the United States of America.
Last month we learned that the economy was collapsing like a mud hat in a monsoon. Every day brought worse news. A global crisis was upon us and it seemed as though there was no end in sight.
Bad news about such things is very good news indeed for a challenger running against the incumbent party.
Barack Obama seems not only to be cruising to victory but also increasing his lead as he heads down the back stretch.
The only thing that can stop him now is if during his final debate tomorrow evening at Hofstra University he repeats responses uninterrupted while jerking his head violently from side to side.
Only then will Obama be exposed as an android and his perfect campaign pitch up until now will be pitched into the trash heap.
I believe Obama is more human than machine, yet it is doubtful that he will suffer such breakdowns until he is in the White House and, hopefully, for our country’s sake not even then.
Mr. Obama has a problem, however. I would say that it is an issue which he has effectively dodged, but it has been reported so long and often, that he has not dodged it at all. It merely has (seemingly) gained little or no traction.
His legislative record (in Congress and Illinois) lacks the triumphs and tribulations of John McCain’s. McCain has either delivered significant legislation (Campaign Finance Reform) or participated in high-level controversial bi-partisan activities (Gang of 14 on the Supreme Court nomination process; Immigration), which Obama has avoided with no apparent harm to his leadership statute.
During the financial crisis, a.k.a. “September Surprise”, Obama somehow managed to stay out of the line of fire, hug the sidelines, and emerge as the studied, calm, and reasoned statesmen most likely to guide us out of this mess as President. Break-down-the-door-and-kick-dawdling-legislators-into-action John McCain sprinted onto the field to save the day only to see teammates (House Republicans) hold a sit-down strike and thrust dozens of eggs on his face, effectively questioning his persuasive leadership powers. This is especially amusing considering that Democrats were the odds-on favorites to derail any McCain-as-savior initiative.
Therefore, Obama has burst through the campaign fog and is likely to win a decisive victory. [Absent an October surprise as catastrophic as mentioned above, I predict an 8 – 10 percentage point victory even after any “Bradley Effect.”] Such a margin would be healthy for the country as it ought to silence somewhat the partisan rancor and begin national healing and reconciliation, which is dearly needed.
The bad news is that President Obama will need to grow a new, better, and stronger spine to stand up to domestic (read: Reid and Pelosi) and foreign (Pakistan, Iran, Venezuela, North Korea, Russia, et al) leaders who will try to mold him to their liking. Obama’s platform and mantra have been commendable: let us all sit down and work things out. Whether the issue is racial or international, Obama seems to genuinely believe that serious, yet cordial, talks will bring positive outcomes. I thought that when I was in college. I do not believe that so much today.
Nevertheless, discussions, diplomacy, and negotiations are important prerequisites to enduring solutions. However, toughness is often required when identifying and pursuing our national interests.
First, Obama must correctly discern our country’s interests. Many of his detractors feel that he may not possess viewpoints as "American” as some would like. Second, he must courageously and untiringly promote them in the world arena whether at the United Nations or across the table from Iran’s President Mahmud Ahmadinejad.
John F. Kennedy, the last sitting Senator to be elected President, proclaimed: “Ask not what your country can do for you -- ask what you can do for your country.”
What you can do is send a carton of calcium supplements to the White House early next year and pray that President Obama’s bones grow strong enough to carry our country on his shoulders.
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Fred W. Apelquist, III, M.Ed.
Approximately 700 words.
© October 14, 2008
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