Excuse the tautology in the title, but I wanted to give some folks running for office the benefit of the doubt. Silly me. Of course, our politicians by nature are pandering. How else could they possibly capture our attention let along our vote?
Your obedient servant, YETMO, will lay his reputation and dearth of knowledge on the line and foretell, months ahead of other political pundits, what will evolve in the 2008 Presidential elections.
Are you paying attention? I want you to write this down, especially if by some incredible quirk of nature, I lay out the landscape reasonably close to what will emerge in the next several months.
Like you, I, of course, have my own personal and political biases. We will see whether mine roughly mirror the general electorate’s. I am more or less a regular McDonald’s and WalMart sort of guy. I would imagine that my mindset is more in tune with most folks than my demi-idols George F. Will, E.J. Dionne, Jr., David Broder, David Ignatius, and columnist emeritus, William Raspberry.
It has taken me quite some time to muster the foresight and courage to pontificate on our 2008 political landscape. So, as a good buddy of mine says, “Cut to the chase.”
Your presidential candidates will be either Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama on the Democrats’ side versus Mitt Romney or John McCain on the Republicans’ ticket. Do not be surprised if Michael Bloomberg and Newt Gingrich team up on an Independent third-party ticket.
I know that Mike Huckabee is hot right now but, seriously, do you think the country will elect someone with a last name like that, or another Governor from Arkansas? No way. Take it from someone with a last name like “Apelquist.” I know of what I speak. He will have his Andy Warhol moments in the sun, but nothing more. Mark my words.
Let me go out on a limb – again – and predict the Iowa caucuses. Obama will squeak by Hillary. Her legendary negative advertising and connections with the political elite will fail her here, though she will bounce back in other states, especially New Hampshire.
Huckabee will not win in Iowa. His star will fade by then, and Romney will eke out a victory. He and McCain will be in a dogfight for New Hampshire.
By the time we head to the polls in November, 2008 – do you believe how long that is for now!! – our choice will be between Hillary Clinton v. John McCain (vindicated for his courageous, yet politically tone-deaf Iraq position). How’s that for a comeback? John McCain returns from the grave. I believe that the country, more than tired with Iraq, could see this Vietnam War vet as the man to lead us out of Mesopotamia without committing the exiting errors we endured from our ill-timed and ill-executed extraction from the Southeast Asian nation that held and tortured him for years.
[Note: McCain is definitely the upset pick. Romney has the stereotypical Republican pedigree despite his recent flip-flopping. He is a virtual cinch for the nomination but, as a pundit, I have to choose at least one underdog.]
For the general election, the Clinton machine and female-mongering may be too great for our electorate – and back-room politicos – to overcome. She wants to portray herself as the poor, helpless female whom society will not provide an opportunity to govern, yet we proletarians know better. She is among the uber-people, and her ploy to paint herself as a dithering damsel in distress does not pass muster.
Hillary’s biggest problem is not that the country is not ready for a woman president. It is that we are unsure of a woman who wishes to appear more male-like than female. We want a woman who knows her gender, relishes it, yet can stare down the world’s most powerful leaders and make them dance to her tune.
People elected Golda Meir and Margaret Thatcher, both quintessentially matronly and grandmotherly types, who were tough as nails. If Hillary can both celebrate and exude her femininity while demonstrating firmness, she will be a lock for a January 20, 2009, inauguration. The question is, is she capable of presenting that persona? Does she possess such a persona? If she is painted as another cold-blooded calculating candidate, then she will be viewed as an extra valise in the large collection of Clintonian baggage. However, if she asserts herself, as Hillary, not Bill’s beau, she will do fine. Professional politicos will doubtlessly disagree with this assessment, but I believe Bill is no asset on the campaign trail. On the contrary, he is a liability, a distraction interfering with Hillary’s defining herself as a presentable potential president. The polity does not want a co-presidency, regardless of the co-pilot’s gender. We are not even infatuated with vice presidents, for goodness sake.
As for the outcome of the November 4th election, well, that is too close to call right now, even for someone as bold and unbalanced as YETMO. I plea for more time to forecast the final figures.
I hope you had a Merry Christmas, and I extend best wishes for a Happy New Year. 2008 is going to be a hoot. Strap on the ol’ seatbelts. We are in for quite a ride.
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Fred W. Apelquist, III, M.Ed.
Approximately 875 words.
© December 2007
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